A last stand in Tehran

Politique Internationale - What do you think the outcome of the US-Israeli intervention in Iran will be?

Michel Fayad - In any case, what's desirable is for the Islamic Republic to fall very quickly and, consequently, for the war to end as soon as possible. It's the first time in military history that in the space of 48 hours we've witnessed the assassination of the head of state, the minister of defense, the head of the defense council, the head of the army and the head of a regime's paramilitary force! If the rest takes longer, things are likely to get more complicated, as Iran has a very large stockpile of weapons and can always count on its proxies. It could even activate its ramifications in the world of organized crime. A recent case in France illustrates these collusions: the Marco Polo affair. A drug trafficker from Marseille's DZ Mafia allegedly received money from the Islamic Republic of Iran to commit crimes and attacks on French soil, together with his partner. He was arrested in 2024 and went on trial in early 2026 (1).

P. I. - And what is the most likely outcome?

M. F. - If the Americans and Israelis continue at the same pace, the most likely outcome is the fall of the regime. But the Iranians still have some trump cards up their sleeve, as we've seen over the last few days: by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of oil, 22% of gas and 33% of fertilizers pass, they retain considerable power to cause trouble. They have also hit the oil pipeline that runs from Baku in Azerbaijan to Turkey (at Ceyhan), via Tbilisi in Georgia, and through which over 1 million barrels of oil a day are shipped to Europe. Nor is it impossible that the Houthis could attack the pipeline that crosses the Suez Canal, bringing 2.5 million barrels of oil to Europe every day. The same Houthis could also paralyze Saudi production by targeting Arabian oil fields. As you can see, Iran still has the means to hurt the West.

That's why, I repeat, the key to everything is the speed of this war.

P. I. - Is it possible that part of the Revolutionary Guards or the army could switch to the American-Israeli side in exchange for the promise of an amnesty, for example?

M. F. - I don't believe in the scenario of the army rebelling against the Revolutionary Guards. For the simple reason that, in reality, since the Islamic revolution of 1979 and even more so in recent years, the Revolutionary Guards have taken military ascendancy over the army and infiltrated it at every level. In practice, it is impossible for the army to rise up against the Guardians. On the other hand, there may be individual defections in the army, but no wholesale reversal. There are also individual defections within the ranks of the Guardian Corps.

P. I. - As we speak, which personalities still "hold" …