Erdogan, a regime on its last legs but not yet finished

The arrest on March 19 of Ekrem Imamoglu, mayor of Istanbul and designated candidate of the Republican People's Party (CHP, Kemalist) in the next presidential election, scheduled for 2028, has sparked unrest in Turkey. Hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets across the country to protest against this judicial coup by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been in power since 2003. Who are these protesters, what do they want, and what are their chances of success? Marie Jégo, a renowned expert on Turkish politics, provides some answers.

Grégory Rayko — Ekrem Imamoglu was arrested for "corruption." Specifically, what are the charges against him?

Marie Jégo — Officially, he is accused of passive corruption, extortion, and rigging public contracts, in other words, of asking businessmen for money in exchange for contracts with the Istanbul City Council. He is also accused of nepotism: he allegedly provided jobs at Istanbul City Hall to people who had been his colleagues at Beylikdüzü City Hall, the district of the city where he was mayor before becoming mayor of Istanbul in 2019. This last accusation is particularly grotesque when one considers the practices of the AKP (Justice and Development Party), Recep Tayyip Erdogan's party. Need we recall that in 2018, Erdogan appointed his son-in-law as finance minister (1) even though he had no knowledge of economics?

As for the other charges against Imamoglu, it is not impossible that he may have awarded public contracts to people he knew. But that's how the whole of Turkey works! In town halls run by the AKP, contracts are not awarded to companies known to be close to the CHP. On the contrary, they are systematically awarded—sometimes without any pretense of competition—to pro-AKP contractors who contribute financially to Erdogan's campaigns. The accusations against Imamoglu are therefore unwelcome, to say the least, given how the ruling party operates...

G. R. — The day before Imamoglu was arrested, there had been a first warning shot: his university degree had been revoked...

M. J. — That's right. To be a candidate for the presidency of the Republic of Turkey, you must have a university degree. So when we learned that Imamoglu's 1994 degree from Istanbul University had been revoked, we understood that the noose was tightening. But in reality, the authorities had been preparing to bring him down for some time. He had previously been convicted of public insults simply because he had made disparaging remarks about certain officials of the electoral commission. Again, when we remember how Erdogan expresses himself about his political opponents or certain foreign dignitaries, we laugh bitterly... In any case, the plan to prevent Imamoglu from running in the next presidential election was already in place. First step: revoke his degree. Second step: arrest him. And then charge him, knowing that he will most likely be convicted and go to prison.

G. R. — Why did the authorities take action on March 19, and not before or after?

M. J. — Perhaps because Imamoglu's party, the CHP, was preparing to hold a primary to select its presidential candidate. The suspense was limited, as Imamoglu was the only candidate, but a high turnout could have been an asset for his future campaign.

G. R. — The primary still took place, even though Imamoglu had already been arrested...

M. J. — Yes, and turnout was huge! Everyone was eligible to vote. As a result, some 15 million people turned out to endorse Imamoglu's candidacy (2)!

G. R. — Which means he is popular throughout the country, not …