Trump and the midterms

Politique Internationale — Republicans currently control both the House of Representatives and the Senate, but only by razor-thin margins: 218 seats to the Democrats’ 212 in the House (with 5 vacancies), and 53 to 45 in the Senate (plus 2 independents). Do you think they will hold on to these narrow majorities in the November 3 elections?

Nicole Bacharan — At this point, pollsters and analysts expect the Democrats to win a narrow majority in the House; the Senate, meanwhile, is very much up for grabs. The election will be decided by the slimmest of margins. Take Michigan, for example. The Democratic candidate for one of the state’s two Senate seats is Abdul El-Sayed, who won his party’s primary. He is firmly on the far-left wing of the Democratic Party and has received a great deal of national media attention in recent weeks. His emergence should be seen alongside that of other figures from the same political current, most notably Zohran Mamdani, who was elected mayor of New York last year. The highly radical profile of some Democratic candidates and leading figures could prompt voters across the country to vote against Democratic candidates…

P. I. — True, but could the media attention surrounding these far-left figures also mobilize some voters for the Democrats who might otherwise have stayed home had the party fielded moderate candidates across the board?

N. B. — It is certainly possible. Polls indicate that turnout on both sides will be high, significantly higher than in a typical midterm election. And the surge of the far left is real. But, as you suggest, it can cut both ways: it may energize voters drawn to its ideas and its style — particularly some younger voters — while at the same time discouraging more centrist Democrats and prompting Republicans and independents to turn out in force to block a left-wing fringe that worries them. Mamdani may have considerable appeal in New York, but in the Midwest, far from the East and West Coasts, in what is sometimes loosely called Middle America, candidates taking such positions do not tend to do very well.

P. I. — How do you explain the emergence of these radical left-wing figures, whose defining principles include hostility toward Israel? Is this simply an accident, or the result of a more elaborate strategy by extremists to infiltrate the Democratic Party?

N. B. — I do believe the Democratic Party has been subject to “infiltration.” For a long time now, the Muslim Brotherhood and Qatar have pursued a strategy aimed at infiltrating universities, notably through scholarships and funding for pseudo-sociological, decolonial and similar research programs. That dynamic is then amplified by social media and by the strongly left-wing climate prevailing on many campuses. Nor can one ignore the role of Muslim immigration.

That said, the success of the far left also has a great deal to do with economics, which must not be overlooked. There is a growing backlash against, or …