Politique Internationale — If you had to sum up the current major economic risks, what would you spontaneously highlight?
Gilles Moëc — The short-term risks are closely linked to the geopolitical situation, starting with the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Tensions between China and the United States are also a major concern, and the European Union (EU) is torn between the two forces. While the EU’s alignment with US positions is a long- standing reality, it is subject to jolts, and economic interests are not entirely convergent: Sino-European trade relations remain more balanced – or less unbalanced – than those between the United States and China, despite fierce competition over certain strategic products. This Sino-American confrontation is contributing in no small measure to the revival of protectionist ideas, with knock- on effects in Europe. Not that the main principles of free trade are being challenged, but the EU no longer wants to be naive. The proposed new countervailing tax on Chinese vehicles is part of this. That’s understandable, but we have to be careful that this ‘tougher’ approach doesn’t drift into a deeper questioning of free trade. In the United States, during the campaign, Donald Trump was clear: a 10% increase in customs duties on all imported products is a scenario that could be implemented, with 60% ‘special treatment’ for Chinese products. It is no longer a question of enforcing the rules of international trade, but more generally of hindering China’s development.
Generally speaking, geopolitical tensions are accompanied by a number of related threats, particularly on the energy market, which we remember being so badly shaken two years ago. How can we find an energy mix that satisfies both the need for decarbonisation and a supply at a reasonable price? France is well placed in this respect, but most countries cannot say the same.
P. I. — What about the long-term risks?
G. M. — The rise of Big Data and artificial intelligence (AI) are phenomena that arouse both enthusiasm and concern. Among the feared consequences are the widening of social inequalities, the impact on employment and the invasion of privacy. These threats undoubtedly need to be examined and managed. Nonetheless, the discourse on AI is often overly negative. This technological innovation is a formidable accelerator of productivity, where for more than a decade, weakness in productivity gains has been a major factor holding Europe back, while the gap with the United States continues to widen.
The other major long-term risk, which is unambiguous, is global warming. It must be repeated that the final cost of inaction will be massive, even if the sacrifices to be made to achieve ‘net zero’ may seem onerous: successive studies show a deterioration in the situation, with for the moment an inability to maintain the trajectory of temperature rises within the limits of the Paris agreements. This does not mean that nothing is being done. The ecological transition is now being approached in a more pragmatic way; the idealism that prevailed until now has faded. Questions …